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As the great Copenhagen climate charade drags on and the politicians gyre and gimble in the wabe, as Lewis Carroll might have described it, climate change sceptics have found a renewed vigour.
The sceptics' contention is that although global temperatures are rising more rapidly than ever before, this is not caused by human activity but is a natural effect.
The Impressionist would like to point out that there is now a really good opportunity to test the claims of both sides.
Industrial output has dropped significantly during the recent recession and so we would expect that less CO2 has been emitted. As a result of this, it should be possible to see if the temperature rise continues at its current rate over the next few years. If it continues to rise at an ever-increasing rate, then the sceptics will have a point; if not, then it will be yet another nail in the coffin of climate scepticism.
This has happened before - industrial output dropped in the recession of the late 1980s and this was followed a short while later by a reduction in temperature rise.
(See the temperature graph at https://epa.gov/climatechange/science/recenttc.html). As this wasn't noticed until after the event and is not a large effect, it gave the sceptics room to deny that there was a cause and effect relationship.
The same graph shows a more pronounced effect around the time of world war 2 when industrial production was massively increased and millions of troops moved around in gas guzzling trucks, ships and planes. The rise and subsequent fall in temperature is obvious. It's difficult to claim that this is a natural effect.
This time, the climate models need to predict the magnitude of the effects of the drop in industrial activity closely enough to convince the sceptics - no easy task.
Don't expect an instant answer either - these measurements are very difficult and take years to check and verify: that is science. Either way, we will still have a major problem - on the one hand convincing the sceptics and on the other, frying.
The outcome of Copenhagen is much less in doubt - last minute deals will be brokered; great words will be spoken; and Gordon Brown will have saved the world yet again.
The sceptics' contention is that although global temperatures are rising more rapidly than ever before, this is not caused by human activity but is a natural effect.
The Impressionist would like to point out that there is now a really good opportunity to test the claims of both sides.
Industrial output has dropped significantly during the recent recession and so we would expect that less CO2 has been emitted. As a result of this, it should be possible to see if the temperature rise continues at its current rate over the next few years. If it continues to rise at an ever-increasing rate, then the sceptics will have a point; if not, then it will be yet another nail in the coffin of climate scepticism.
This has happened before - industrial output dropped in the recession of the late 1980s and this was followed a short while later by a reduction in temperature rise.
(See the temperature graph at https://epa.gov/climatechange/science/recenttc.html). As this wasn't noticed until after the event and is not a large effect, it gave the sceptics room to deny that there was a cause and effect relationship.
The same graph shows a more pronounced effect around the time of world war 2 when industrial production was massively increased and millions of troops moved around in gas guzzling trucks, ships and planes. The rise and subsequent fall in temperature is obvious. It's difficult to claim that this is a natural effect.
This time, the climate models need to predict the magnitude of the effects of the drop in industrial activity closely enough to convince the sceptics - no easy task.
Don't expect an instant answer either - these measurements are very difficult and take years to check and verify: that is science. Either way, we will still have a major problem - on the one hand convincing the sceptics and on the other, frying.
The outcome of Copenhagen is much less in doubt - last minute deals will be brokered; great words will be spoken; and Gordon Brown will have saved the world yet again.
Please wait ...
