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Saturday 29th November 2008 is Paradox of Thrift - a recession is made worse by savers who don't create demand by buying stuff.
In fact, the argument is a little more subtle: Keynes had it that saving is actually a good thing as long as borrowers in the economy want to borrow. So it's OK if the banks have £100bn in deposits as long as businesses, homebuyers and investors want to borrow at least £100bn. Clearly this is the case in the UK as the banks have lent £700bn more than UK depositors have given them. And so the Paradox of Thrift does not apply: the right thing to do is to save money.
Unfortunately, the US and UK governments have lunged at the simplistic version of the Paradox of Thrift and claim that demand needs a quick boost even though we are grossly overindebted already. Having realised that the US and UK can really pay back only a fraction of their current debt, their governments are cynically trying to resurrect the borrow and spend ethic to create the illusion of recovery.
Even if they manage to hoodwink the public and browbeat the banks into this, the evil moment when investors demand repayment will merely be postponed. If your supertanker is heading towards the rocks, the worst thing you can do is call for full speed ahead.
What happens when depositors and investors demand their money back? Banks (and countries) go bust.
It's already happened to Northern Rock, Lehman Brothers, Iceland and loads more. The UK may be on the menu for 2010.
So even if you do buy something in the shops this Saturday, make sure you don't buy 'no more boom and bust' Brown's spin on borrowing more.
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